Episode 9 - Health Claims
to seek - искать, стремиться, просить
subsequently - впоследствии, в дальнейшем
diluted -разбавленный
causes - причины, дело, поводы
the multiplication table - таблица умножения
Surgeons - хирурги
caution - осторожность
err - заблуждаться
immediate - немедленная
surveys - опросы
predispose - предрасполагать
shortcuts - ярлык, короткий путь
lead us astray - приводят нас в заблуждение
intention - намерение
deliberation - обдумывание
Cognitive Biases - когнитивные искажение (искаженное восприятие)
superior - превосходный
suspect - подозреваемый
to seek - искать, стремиться, просить
subsequently - впоследствии, в дальнейшем
diluted -разбавленный
causes - причины, дело, поводы
the multiplication table - таблица умножения
Surgeons - хирурги
caution - осторожность
err - заблуждаться
immediate - немедленная
surveys - опросы
predispose - предрасполагать
shortcuts - ярлык, короткий путь
lead us astray - приводят нас в заблуждение
intention - намерение
deliberation - обдумывание
Cognitive Biases - когнитивные искажение (искаженное восприятие)
superior - превосходный
suspect - подозреваемый
judgement - суд
impairment - ухудшение
plain - простой, обыкновенный
pertinent - уместный
salience (also called saliency) - заметность, выпуклость
forensic - судебный
tackle - снасти, принадлежности, инструменты
anticipation - предчувствие, предвосхищение, предвкушение, предвидение
fuzzy - нечеткий, неясный, ворсистый, пушистый
testimonial - свидетельство, рекомендация
claims that are taken for granted - утверждения, которые принимаются как само собой разумеющиеся
innocent - невиновный
faintly plausible - слабо правдоподобно
diminished - уменьшить, снизить
tribes - племена, множества
boar - боров, кабан
heal a whole range of ailments - вылечить целый ряд заболеваний
debunking - развенчивать
limbs - конечность, колено
vague - расплывчатый
contorting - кривя, искажая
analgesia—that is, pain relief - анестезия, т.е. обезболивание
pronounced - выраженный
linens - постельное белье
propensity - наклонности
rush to get vaccines - спешить, чтобы получить вакцину
persuaded - убежден
whooping cough - захлебывающийся кашель
inclined - склонен
polio and measles -полиомиелит, корь
significant - значительный
In general, people feel much more comfortable about something bad happening after doing nothing than something bad happening after doing something.
Cognitive Biases are systematic errors that predispose one's thinking in favor of a certain viewpoint over other viewpoints. The scientific method was developed, among other reasons, to counteract these biases in order to derive objective knowledge.
Biases are often result from using shortcuts in thinking called heuristics. Such shortcuts allow us to make quick decisions about otherwise complex problems by following instinctive rules of thumb. Although useful in many situations (such as rapidly determining the mood of someone you just met), heuristics can lead us astray. Many problems should be thought through with intention and deliberation. When we settle for quick heuristics in our thinking, we often end up acting according to our biases.
https://sites.google.com/site/skepticalmedicine//cognitive-biases
Эффе́кт Ба́рнума (эффе́кт Фо́рера, эффе́кт субъекти́вного подтвержде́ния) — общее наблюдение, согласно которому люди крайне высоко оценивают точность таких описаний их личности, которые, как они предполагают, созданы индивидуально для них, но которые на самом деле неопределённы и достаточно обобщены, чтобы их можно было с таким же успехом применить и ко многим другим людям.
The representativeness heuristic is used when making judgments about the probability of an event under uncertainty.[1] It is one of a group of heuristics(simple rules governing judgment or decision-making) proposed by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the early 1970s. Heuristics are described as "judgmental shortcuts that generally get us where we need to go – and quickly – but at the cost of occasionally sending us off course."[2]Heuristics are useful because they use effort-reduction and simplification in decision-making
Illusory correlation is the phenomenon of perceiving a relationship between variables (typically people, events, or behaviors) even when no such relationship exists. A common example of this phenomenon is the formation of a false association between membership in a statistical minority group (e.g., African-Americans) and a rare, typically negative, behavior (e.g., drug abuse). This false association is formed because rare or novel occurrences are more salient and therefore tend to capture one's attention.
An anti-establishment view or belief is one which stands in opposition to the conventional social, political, and economic principles of a society.
The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision. The availability heuristic operates on the notion that if something can be recalled, it must be important, or at least more important than alternative solutions which are not as readily recalled. Subsequently, under the availability heuristic, people tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward that latest news
regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.[1][2][3] To avoid making incorrect inferences, regression toward the mean must be considered when designing scientific experiments and interpreting data.
Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities. - склонность к подтвтерждению своей точки зрения
An availability cascade is a self-reinforcing cycle that explains the development of certain kinds of collective beliefs. A novel idea or insight, usually one that seems to explain a complex process in a simple or straightforward manner, gains rapid currency in the popular discourse by its very simplicity and by its apparent insightfulness. Its rising popularity triggers a chain reaction within the social network: individuals adopt the new insight because other people within the network have adopted it, and on its face it seems plausible. The reason for this increased use and popularity of the new idea involves both the availability of the previously obscure term or idea, and the need of individuals using the term or idea to appear to be current with the stated beliefs and ideas of others, regardless of whether they in fact fully believe in the idea that they are expressing. Their need for social acceptance, and the apparent sophistication of the new insight, overwhelm their critical thinking.
A one-sided argument (also known as card stacking, stacking the deck, ignoring the counterevidence, slanting, and suppressed evidence)[1] is an informal fallacy that occurs when only the reasons supporting a proposition are supplied, while all reasons opposing it are omitted.
Once you understand it, multiple endpoints is a potent weapon in the Skeptic's arsenal. It shows up in many more places than you might think. The problem you might face is in explaining it to others. For that, I recommend a metaphor like the ones I used earlier in this post or "It's like fishing with a net, and then, once you catch a fish, claiming you nailed it with a spear."
Well, one excellent resource is called the Cochrane Library. It summarizes and interprets
the really good scientific experiments that have been done on a wide range of treatments.
Cognitive Biases are systematic errors that predispose one's thinking in favor of a certain viewpoint over other viewpoints. The scientific method was developed, among other reasons, to counteract these biases in order to derive objective knowledge.
Biases are often result from using shortcuts in thinking called heuristics. Such shortcuts allow us to make quick decisions about otherwise complex problems by following instinctive rules of thumb. Although useful in many situations (such as rapidly determining the mood of someone you just met), heuristics can lead us astray. Many problems should be thought through with intention and deliberation. When we settle for quick heuristics in our thinking, we often end up acting according to our biases.
https://sites.google.com/site/skepticalmedicine//cognitive-biases
Эффе́кт Ба́рнума (эффе́кт Фо́рера, эффе́кт субъекти́вного подтвержде́ния) — общее наблюдение, согласно которому люди крайне высоко оценивают точность таких описаний их личности, которые, как они предполагают, созданы индивидуально для них, но которые на самом деле неопределённы и достаточно обобщены, чтобы их можно было с таким же успехом применить и ко многим другим людям.
The representativeness heuristic is used when making judgments about the probability of an event under uncertainty.[1] It is one of a group of heuristics(simple rules governing judgment or decision-making) proposed by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the early 1970s. Heuristics are described as "judgmental shortcuts that generally get us where we need to go – and quickly – but at the cost of occasionally sending us off course."[2]Heuristics are useful because they use effort-reduction and simplification in decision-making
Illusory correlation is the phenomenon of perceiving a relationship between variables (typically people, events, or behaviors) even when no such relationship exists. A common example of this phenomenon is the formation of a false association between membership in a statistical minority group (e.g., African-Americans) and a rare, typically negative, behavior (e.g., drug abuse). This false association is formed because rare or novel occurrences are more salient and therefore tend to capture one's attention.
An anti-establishment view or belief is one which stands in opposition to the conventional social, political, and economic principles of a society.
The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision. The availability heuristic operates on the notion that if something can be recalled, it must be important, or at least more important than alternative solutions which are not as readily recalled. Subsequently, under the availability heuristic, people tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward that latest news
regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.[1][2][3] To avoid making incorrect inferences, regression toward the mean must be considered when designing scientific experiments and interpreting data.
Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities. - склонность к подтвтерждению своей точки зрения
An availability cascade is a self-reinforcing cycle that explains the development of certain kinds of collective beliefs. A novel idea or insight, usually one that seems to explain a complex process in a simple or straightforward manner, gains rapid currency in the popular discourse by its very simplicity and by its apparent insightfulness. Its rising popularity triggers a chain reaction within the social network: individuals adopt the new insight because other people within the network have adopted it, and on its face it seems plausible. The reason for this increased use and popularity of the new idea involves both the availability of the previously obscure term or idea, and the need of individuals using the term or idea to appear to be current with the stated beliefs and ideas of others, regardless of whether they in fact fully believe in the idea that they are expressing. Their need for social acceptance, and the apparent sophistication of the new insight, overwhelm their critical thinking.
A one-sided argument (also known as card stacking, stacking the deck, ignoring the counterevidence, slanting, and suppressed evidence)[1] is an informal fallacy that occurs when only the reasons supporting a proposition are supplied, while all reasons opposing it are omitted.
cool Guys )))) yahaha
sceptic Guy
Once you understand it, multiple endpoints is a potent weapon in the Skeptic's arsenal. It shows up in many more places than you might think. The problem you might face is in explaining it to others. For that, I recommend a metaphor like the ones I used earlier in this post or "It's like fishing with a net, and then, once you catch a fish, claiming you nailed it with a spear."
Well, one excellent resource is called the Cochrane Library. It summarizes and interprets
the really good scientific experiments that have been done on a wide range of treatments.
http://www.cochranelibrary.com/
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